”Ready-to-eat rice and eating out” are omitted from rice production... Inaccurate statistics lead to taxpayers' money being leaked = South Korea

The South Korean government announces rice harvest measures every year, but there is growing debate over their effectiveness. The statistics on rice consumption and production, which are the basis for the measures, are themselves out of sync with reality (
There has been criticism that unnecessary market isolation and discount support based on inaccurate forecasts and statistics is continuing, leading to increased fiscal waste.
On the 13th, the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs estimated that next year's rice consumption will be 3,409,000 tons, down 120,000 tons from this year. Rice production will be roughly the same as last year, but the decrease in consumption will be a factor.
The surplus production is expected to reach 165,000 tons, up from last year's 56,000 tons. In response to this, the government, concerned about a sudden drop in rice prices, is planning to cut back on production in advance during the harvest season this year as well.
The government plans to block 100,000 tons of rice from the market. The problem is that the consumption amount is not accurately known in the first place. According to the National Data Agency, the per capita rice consumption last year was 55.8 kg.
This is less than half of the 1990 figure (119.6 kg). However, this statistic only covers rice cooked and eaten at home.
This does not include rice consumption in the form of ready-to-eat meals, school lunches, eating out, or processed foods. In the ready-to-eat rice market alone, annual rice consumption will reach approximately 140,000 tons. In 2023, the domestic rice processed food manufacturing industry
The amount of rice purchased by the government alone amounts to 640,000 tons, which is used to produce rice-based processed foods such as rice cakes, noodles, and makgeolli. In addition, the amount of rice used in school cafeterias and the food service industry nationwide is also several hundred thousand per year.
This amounts to tons, but it is not reflected in official statistics, and it has been pointed out that actual rice consumption may be underestimated.
Concerns continue to be raised about the production survey, with some pointing out that the sample is not representative enough.
The rice consumption survey covered 1,400 households nationwide, which is only 0.01% of all households. In particular, 36% of the surveyed households were farming households, and considering the proportion of farming households in the national population (4.3%),
However, there has been criticism that the forecasts are far from reality. The forecasts are also inaccurate. According to the Rural Economic Research Institute, the current forecasts are based solely on sample surveys, and the varieties of crops are not accurately estimated.
In fact, last year, a surplus of 128,000 tons was predicted based on the projected rice production, but it was later determined that the actual figure was less than that, at 56,000 tons.
Such erroneous estimates have led to a huge financial burden on the government and the public. Since 2005, the government has been isolating surplus rice from the market (purchasing it) for 12 years.
Last year, the government spent 2.343 trillion won to purchase and manage surplus rice and make up for the shortfall after resale, a 14.9% increase from the previous year (1.77 trillion won).
The figure was the highest since 2005. The cost of storing and managing the rice purchased by the government last year was 504.9 billion won, down 2% from the previous year (392.9 billion won).
This represents an 8.5% increase, the highest figure since 2005. As of the end of May this year, the government's grain warehouses had stockpiles of 1.244 million tons, and management costs are expected to rise even more than last year.
Experts also agree that statistical reform is urgently needed to resolve the rice supply and demand issue. Professor Kim Sung-Hoon of the Department of Agricultural Economics at Chungnam National University said, "Specific consideration is necessary, but with the changing times,
"We need measures to reflect the changes and improve the accuracy of the statistics," he said. Demands for statistical improvement have also been made in the National Assembly. Jung Il Woo-young, a lawmaker from the Democratic Party, said, "The actual data, such as instant rice, alcohol, rice cakes, and school lunches,
"If statistics that omit all the rice consumed by the public are published as 'per capita rice consumption,' it could not only cause confusion among the public, but also distort agricultural supply and demand and budget policy," he said.
However, a government official said, "When we announce the estimated consumption figures, we also reflect the demand for processed rice," and drew a line at plans to improve the statistics for the time being.