Bitcoin is set to see a huge uptrend in 2026 – 4-year cycle no longer valid

Recently, analysts have been divided on whether Bitcoin will follow the halving cycle as in the past or if it has entered a new cycle, with many speculating that the four-year cycle is no longer valid.
Matt Hogan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Invest, said:
Hougan, in a video posted on X (formerly Twitter) on the 26th, predicted that "instead of the traditional four-year cycle, Bitcoin could experience a significant uptrend in 2026."
However, he added that "I could be wrong," but predicted that "2025 will not be the end of the bull market."
"I think 2026 is going to be an upswing," Hogan said. "We're on a good path for the next few years."
He argued that Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle is no longer valid. The reasons for this are that the impact of the halving is reduced by half every four years,
△The interest rate cut cycle has been favorable for crypto assets. Hogan especially noted that U.S. President Donald Trump has been pushing for the creation of the Federal Reserve’s Jerome Pablo.
He pointed out that Wells has openly been pushing for interest rate cuts, and that low interest rates make traditional assets like bonds and time deposits less attractive, which is a positive for Bitcoin.
Hogan also said that "as regulatory clarity and institutionalization across the industry progresses, it is less likely that Bitcoin will experience the same large price declines as in the past."
"Given the current regulatory environment and early institutional participation, this cycle may have more upside potential than in the past," he said, noting that "long-term crypto-friendly factors are more likely to be aligned with traditional
"It will surpass the four-year cycle," he added. He said the most important "cyclical risk" to watch out for in the short term is the expansion of "Bitcoin Finance Companies" that hold large amounts of Bitcoin.
"This is a risk that we should be watching closely and it is a real and significant issue," Hogan said. Asset manager VanEck also expressed similar concerns.
The warning is that companies that issue new shares or increase debt to buy large amounts of cryptocurrency could face serious losses if the market crashes.
Hogan said he believes the Bitcoin price rise is more likely to show a "sustained, steady upward trend" than a short-term spike.
"The cycle is more like a gradual upward trend than a super cycle," he said, but also expressed caution, saying, "I could be wrong, and there will obviously be a lot of volatility."
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