Some indicators, such as ETF outflows, have cast doubt on the sustainability of the recent rally. On this day, Bitcoin reaffirmed the $105,200 mark before rebounding to $109,000.
The dollar surged above the dollar, signalling a strong rally that came in conjunction with an expansion in the euro zone's money supply and signs of a slowdown in the U.S. job market.
However, according to Bitcoin derivatives indicators, professional traders are
However, investors remain cautious. In particular, Bitcoin futures premiums remain below the 5% neutral level, suggesting that investors are not yet convinced of a full-blown bull market.
The indicator last came close to a bullish signal on June 11, when Bitcoin tested the $110,000 level.
According to reports, it is difficult to pinpoint the exact cause of the surge, but the euro zone's April
This is likely due to the fact that broad money (M2) increased 2.7% year-on-year, showing signs of monetary expansion. This coincides with the trend of expanding liquidity in the United States.
Concerns of an economic slowdown are also growing, with private sector employment falling by 33,000 in June, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Some are attributing low demand for leveraged long positions to the risk of a recession and the slowdown in global trade.
US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of more than 30% on Japanese products if the negotiations are not concluded by July 9.
At the same time, the European Union (EU) is pushing for a 10% mutual tariff reduction in trade negotiations with the US, but due to differences in positions within the region, it has not yet been decided whether to take concrete countermeasures.
Not only the futures market, but also the Bitcoin options market is not showing a clear direction. Generally, when a sharp drop is expected, the 25% delta skew index rises to 6% or more, and put options
Options command a higher premium than call options. However, the indicator is currently neutral at 0%. This is because investors are unsure of which direction Bitcoin's price will go.
On the other hand, in China, Tether is trading at a discount of about 1% from the official exchange rate, which suggests that investors are feeling psychologically depressed.
Generally, when Tether falls below $1, it is interpreted as an attempt to withdraw funds from the cryptocurrency market. The current discount is the largest since mid-May, and the bitcoin price is at its lowest since May.
This shows that market confidence has not been restored despite the rise in tocoin prices.
2025/07/03 13:48 KST
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