Kalshi participants are reportedly changing their outlook for the US economy to negative. Both platforms are predicting that US GDP will grow to negative in the first quarter of 2025.
The U.S. has seen positive growth every quarter since 2022, so a negative turn could be interpreted as a signal of a recession.
On the same day, Karshi's forecast for the first quarter GDP growth rate of the United States was sharply revised downward from 0.5% to -0.4% in just one day. Polymarket also announced on the same day that the US economy may shrink.
The shift in mood came just after the results of the Canadian general election were announced. Canada, the second largest trading partner of the United States, has a liberal outlook.
The party elected its own Mark Carney as prime minister, and he teased a tough response to the trade war with the United States.
Market participants are keeping their eyes on the official GDP index from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), scheduled for release on April 30.
The report is expected to provide a clearer picture of the impact of President Donald Trump's tariff policies on the economy.
Prediction markets work by trading contracts tied to real events,20
In 2024, it produced predictions that were just as reliable as traditional opinion polls, and was particularly praised for accurately predicting Trump's election as president and Republican control of Congress.
2025/04/30 10:34 KST
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