With international crude oil prices soaring and the won becoming weaker, the Korean economy is in a state of turmoil. The fundamental reason for the rise in crude oil prices and the strong dollar is that the economic boom in the U.S. manufacturing industry started.
There are growing expectations that South Korea's export business will improve. However, at the same time, it not only stimulates the rise in import prices, but also delays the timing of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
It can also act as a negative factor. The timing of the Bank of Korea's interest rate cuts may be delayed or the number of cuts may be reduced, which could further worsen domestic demand, which is already not good.
Meda. As a result, the gap between exports and domestic demand is expected to widen. The manufacturing industries in the United States and China, which are South Korea's No. 1 and No. 2 export departures, are showing signs of strength, and expectations are high for exports to improve. US 3
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for the month recorded 50.3, exceeding the baseline (50) for the first time in 16 months since September 2022, and the China Manufacturing PMI based on the National Bureau of Statistics also reached 50.8, the first time in six months.
The trend has shifted to expansion. As a result, South Korea's exports in March increased by 9.9% on a daily average basis compared to the same month last year, mainly in IT items such as semiconductors.
Since this year, the manufacturing industry has bottomed out and is showing signs of improvement, and South Korea's exports are recovering, but I am not happy about this.
I can't stay. International crude oil prices and prices of raw materials such as copper fluctuated wildly, the strong US economy delayed the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the dollar/won exchange rate rose to the 1,350 won level.
It's because I'm doing it. As a result, the burden on import prices has increased. Import prices increased by 1.2% month-on-month in February, marking the second consecutive month of increase following January (2.5%). South Korea
Dubai crude oil, which is mainly imported, averaged $84.2 per barrel in March (approximately 12,760 yen), an increase of 4.1% from February, and the exchange rate continues to fall, leading to lower import prices in March.
There is a growing possibility that prices will rise further. As a result, the downward trend in domestic prices in South Korea is expected to slow down. The consumer price inflation rate in March remained at the 3% level for the second consecutive month. Bank of Korea relationship
``Although we have maintained the February price forecast (2.6% for the year), the risk of a rise in international crude oil prices appears to be increasing further.''
A delay in the timing of interest rate cuts in the United States due to the strong US economy may also delay the timing of interest rate cuts in South Korea.
It suggests. The Federal Reserve believes it will not be easy to lower interest rates in June. Even if interest rates are lowered in June, interest rates will be reduced within the year.
It seems that the possibility of the number of declines decreasing from three to less than two cannot be ruled out. The problem is that in the current situation where the exchange rate has soared to the 1,350 won range, the Bank of Korea
The point is that it is not easy to decide to lower interest rates before the council. The Bank of Korea stated in its February monetary policy comments that ``domestic and foreign policies, such as currency policies and exchange rate volatility of major countries,
"We also need to weigh changes in conditions," he said, suggesting that if the exchange rate stabilizes, the Fed may cut interest rates before the Fed does. but
If this situation continues, the Bank of Korea may be slow to cut interest rates, as it is predicted that Europe and other countries will lower interest rates even earlier than the Federal Reserve Board, and the exchange rate has soared.
There is a possibility that In a report, Kang Seung-won, a researcher at NH Investment Securities, said, ``Based on the Fed's signal to lower interest rates in May, the Bank of Korea will also cut interest rates in early May.
However, after checking the U.S. employment indicators in April, there is a possibility that the Bank of Korea's interest rate cut will be postponed to July.
Taken together, there is a possibility that the gap between exports and domestic demand will widen in South Korea's domestic economy. Park Sang Hee of Hi Investment Securities
``The U.S. manufacturing industry is improving and South Korea's exports are expected to be strong, but if the Bank of Korea delays its interest rate cut, the already difficult domestic demand is expected to deteriorate even further,'' said Yong.

2024/04/03 07:04 KST
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