The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that China's economic growth rate next year will reach 4.4% if China abolishes its current 'zero-COVID' policy in the second half of next year.
The IMF working team held online discussions with the Chinese government and the private sector from November 2nd to 16th, and announced the outlook in a press release released on the IMF website on the 23rd.
Through the materials, the IMF team took up China's real estate regulations and the blockade due to the zero-corona policy. It recorded 3.2% and is expected to rise to 4.4% in 2023 and 2024."
The day before, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) announced that China's economic growth rate forecast for this year and next year would be 3.3% and 4.6%, respectively.
China's quarterly growth rate (year-on-year) this year was recorded at 4.8% in the first quarter, then plummeted to 0.4% in the second quarter and recovered to 3.9% in the third quarter. did. Based on these factors, China's cumulative growth rate for the first three quarters was aggregated at 3.0%.
Both the OECD and the IMF forecast that "China will record a growth rate in the low 3% range this year", so the view that "the growth rate target of around 5.5% for 2022," which was announced at the National People's Congress in March, will be difficult to achieve, has become even more certain.
Published : 2022/11/25 09:33 KST
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