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On August 7th (local time), according to the "Sunday Times" Sunday edition of the British newspaper "Times", Ian Williams, an expert on China affairs, said in a contribution sent to the media that "China has made no secret of its ambition to annex Taiwan by military means." he said.
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who ranks third in the US hierarchy, visited Taiwan, prompting China to mobilize fighter planes, warships and missiles for large-scale training. She describes it as "militarized anger."
However, he said, "Even if the Chinese military's large-scale demonstration of force is powerful, it does not necessarily mean that it will succeed if it invades." He notes that Taiwan is an "island" separated by mainland China and the sea.
“In order for the Chinese military to succeed in conquering Taiwan, it will have to deploy its marines and successfully land on the seashore, and it will have to produce tangible results in airdrops through airlift units,” he said.
“However, the Taiwan Strait is notorious for its rough waves and strong winds.” he points out.
"There are only about 14 beaches on Taiwan that are suitable for an amphibious operation of the scale China needs," he added.
Borrowing the words of a Taiwanese strategist, he explained, "The Taiwan Strait is similar to the way to Kyiv, where Ukrainian forces repulsed a Russian attack, to Chinese forces trying to land."
He also estimated that China would need about 2 million troops to occupy Taiwan. Considering that the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) as a whole, excluding the armed police, had a strength of 2.185 million as of last year, this means that virtually the entire strength of the Chinese military must be deployed.
On the other hand, he is a former journalist who worked as a correspondent in Beijing and elsewhere, and has written various books on China.
2022/08/12 09:52 KST
